GITBAGS
A futarchy-based protocol on Avalanche to power
open-source project funding through prediction markets.
Neither mechanism prices in what actually matters
Voting reflects sentiment; futarchy reflects staked belief. Current open-source funding relies on mechanisms that don't measure whether infrastructure will actually be used.
Committee Grants
Fast but prone to reviewer bias toward familiar teams. Disconnected from any market-verified signal of expected impact.
- Reviewer bias
- No impact signal
- Opaque decisions
Quadratic / Community Voting
Broadens participation but is highly vulnerable to Sybil attacks and popularity effects unrelated to technical merit.
- Sybil attacks
- Popularity bias
- Low-information voting
The Futarchy Alternative
Use prediction markets to make funding decisions on Avalanche. Conditional vaults, TWAP-based resolution, and token settlement let a market's implied probability decide which open-source projects get funded — instead of a committee or popularity vote.
Spend-Cap + Futarchy-Gated Tranches
A small default allowance keeps projects alive. A futarchy gate controls anything larger. TWAP-confirmed unlock tranches tie growth funding to real usage. A standing exit option protects contributors at every stage.
Default Spending Allowance
Each funded project gets a small, fixed allowance it can draw per period automatically. Covers baseline operating costs. Resistant to reflexivity — keeps projects alive regardless of market sentiment.
- Fixed monthly draw, no vote required
- Covers baseline operating costs
- Project can't fail purely from market disbelief
Futarchy-Gated Approval
Any request beyond the default allowance opens a conditional market: YES/NO vaults on whether the expenditure should be approved. Approved only if the market favors YES.
- YES/NO conditional vaults per request
- Participants stake belief with real capital
- Executes only if market resolves YES
TWAP-Confirmed Unlock Tranches
Follow-on funding unlocks in stages as a usage KPI sustains above threshold over a TWAP window. Measured against real usage metrics — integrations, deploying teams, transaction volume — not token price.
- Unlocks in 20% tranches tied to usage KPIs
- Time-weighted average, not single snapshots
- Metrics: integrations, teams, tx volume
Standing Kill-Switch
At any point, contributors can raise a futarchy proposal to halt further unlocks and reclaim the remaining pool if a project isn't delivering.
- Available at any time, no cooldown
- Triggered via futarchy vote
- Remaining funds reclaimed to pool
Reflexivity Contained
Default allowance keeps projects alive regardless of market sentiment. Only the growth of funding is market-gated, not survival.
Usage, Not Price
Unlocks confirmed against real usage counts — integrations, deploying teams, transaction volume — not volatile token prices.
Sustained, Not Instant
KPIs must hold over a TWAP window, not just touch a threshold once. Prevents gaming via single-snapshot manipulation.
How a Project Moves Through the System
From submission to ongoing funding. Each step has clear gates and transparent outcomes.
Submission
An open-source project submits a funding proposal with a registered usage KPI — e.g., distinct teams integrating the tool by a target date.
Intake Review
The KPI is checked to be measurable, usage-based (not price-based), and the project is admitted into the funding round.
Default Allowance
The project begins drawing a fixed per-period allowance automatically. No vote needed, no market involved — just baseline operating costs.
Market-Gated Spending
Above-allowance requests open a YES/NO conditional market. Participants trade based on belief. Executes only if the market resolves YES.
TWAP Confirmation
At each tranche window, an oracle reports whether the usage KPI held. Confirmed via time-weighted average, not a single snapshot.
Kill-Switch
At any point, contributors can raise a futarchy proposal to halt further unlocks and reclaim remaining funds if a project isn't delivering.
Fund what the market
believes will ship
A futarchy-based protocol on Avalanche purpose-built to fund open-source infrastructure through prediction markets — not committees, not popularity votes.